Recently, there has been an increase in the number of posts discussing COVID-19 reinfections on Chinese social media platforms, which has raised concerns about the virus's potential resurgence.
According to Chinese experts, the increase in positive cases in July compared to the previous month will not have a significant impact on the country's healthcare system because it falls within the normal fluctuation range.
On Thursday, the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) released data showing 7,042 local COVID-19 infections in July, all classified as the Omicron variant. In comparison to June, there was a modest increase of 767 positive cases.
On Tuesday, the World Health Organisation (WHO) issued a warning regarding the global increase in COVID-19 infections, which included the Paris Olympics. The organisation stated that the surge is "unlikely to subside in the near future."
The Chinese CDC's data monitoring revealed a significant decrease in total fever cases, from 125,000 on July 1 to 92,000 on July 31, significantly below the peak typically observed during the autumn and winter months. In July, there was also a decrease in the proportion of flu-like cases in hospitals across the country.
On Saturday, Huashan Infection, the official WeChat account of Huashan Hospital of Fudan University, released a report revealing that mycoplasma pneumoniae is the most frequently detected pathogen among patients under the age of 14, with the novel coronavirus ranking as the second most frequently detected pathogen. The most frequently detected pathogen in patients aged 14 and older is still a novel coronavirus.
According to the report, the proportion of influenza and other viral infections has decreased during the summer, whereas COVID-19 cases have increased.
On Tuesday, the WHO issued a warning that the emergence of a more severe strain of the virus, which could potentially evade detection systems and be unresponsive to medical intervention, is increasing as the virus continues to evolve and spread.
Since early June, the detection rate of the Omicron variant's XDV.1 and KP.2 series has increased, with XDV.1 reaching 40–50 percent of cases. Nevertheless, the Chinese CDC data indicates that these variants have not resulted in an increase in severe cases.
The number of extreme cases in July was 203, which is lower than the number of severe cases in February and March, which were 358 and 588, respectively.
Zhang Wenhong, a renowned infectious disease expert in China, reassured the public in a report on the Huashan Hospital of Fudan University's WeChat account that COVID-19 infections worldwide are exhibiting comparable fluctuations.
For example, the United States has experienced three COVID-19 waves since August 2023, with cycles occurring approximately every five to six months. This trend has not shown a significant increase since 2022, which is comparable to the situation in China.
Zhang asserted a connection between these cyclical fluctuations and variations in human immunity and variant mutations.
Lu Hongzhou, the director of the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, has also observed a comparable situation at his institution. The positivity rate of COVID-19 has increased since July, with approximately 20% of patients exhibiting symptoms.
Lu told me on Sunday that approximately 10% of the patients who tested positive for COVID-19 require hospitalisation, with the majority being elderly patients with preexisting health conditions.
Lu argues that the climate significantly influences the notable seasonality of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Nevertheless, the transmission of COVID-19 is not associated with any distinct seasonality, and the impact of climate on the virus is minimal, according to the available data.
Factors such as increased movement and gatherings of people, virus mutations, lax prevention measures, and indoor environments may be to blame for the high transmission rate of COVID-19 during the summer, according to Lu.
As the summer progresses, the likelihood of viral transmission has increased due to the heightened social activities and travel that occur. In hot weather, people may relax preventive measures like wearing masks. The poor ventilation and prolonged closure conditions of certain indoor venues, according to Lu, further exacerbate the risk of transmission.
Lu further stated that the body's antibody levels will progressively decrease over time, potentially resulting in a decrease in immunity to COVID-19.
Factors such as individual immune status and the environment, as well as increased movement and gatherings during the summer travel surge, may also contribute to the virus's transmission.
Monitoring the three COVID-19 cycles from May 2023, August 2023, and February 2024 demonstrates that COVID-19 is comparable to influenza and other respiratory diseases, with its severity remaining relatively stable as a result of ongoing mutations and periodic immune waning.
At present, the COVID-19 infection surge in July is a component of an upward trend; however, the overall number of cases is lower than it was during the zenith in the autumn and winter of last year, indicating that there is no substantial strain on healthcare resources or the population, according to the expert.
Lu proposed that vaccination against COVID-19 can effectively reduce the risk of severe illness and death after infection and enhance immunity against the virus.
Despite the relatively stable overall situation, there is a risk of localised outbreaks and small-scale epidemics.
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